Altcoins, BTC/USD, BTC.D, Technical Outlook, Edition #126 (13/10/2021)

Bitcoin exhibits signs of lethargy while Bears continue to hibernate - for now... ⚡ Don't miss the clues of a crucial shift in Market Structure covered in Q's midweek technical research 👇

Buyers frustrated as lethargic Price Action fails to satisfy again

The BTC/USD trading pair has held around USD 57K for some time.

Q notes that price action is starting to exhibit symptoms of lethargy and fatigue, which usually draws the bears out from hibernation. Regardless, chasing price here with buy/long positions is nothing short of reckless - pun intended.

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - Daily (D1) 

Flipping the GREEN D1 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is a favourite past-time of Bitcoin during critical shifts in market structure. 

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Whenever price action sits above support, the trend remains bullish as long as retests do not result in close below. 

Conversely, losing the D1 20 EMA usually precludes further selling downside to another key Moving Average (MA) - such as the 50, 100, or 200-period Moving Averages.

This is precisely what Qluster analysts intend to seek out patiently; the much-needed pull back to either of the major support levels staggered between USD 45K - USD 51K. 

A mix of critical moving averages and Fibonacci level confluence places these zones as follows: 

  1. Local Support = 51K 

  2. First Major Support = 48K 

  3. Second Major Support = 45K 

Onwards from these zones, Qluster analysts resolve to observe the closing behaviour of BTC/USD around vital Fibonacci pivot levels and Moving Averages to gauge the viability of sell-side pressure in driving price lower. 

Should all significant support levels break down, BTC/USD may be fated to revisit the sublevels below USD 30K. 


Q’s Conclusion

For the moment, Bitcoin's macrostructure resembles bullish - but urgently requires a short-term pullback for a healthy technical trend structure.

If bulls opt to step in hard, closing sells around any of the zones mentioned above is likely the confirmation needed to buy the incoming pullback - in preparation of a shift long. 

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 4 Hour (H4) 

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Bitcoin Dominance, BTC.D - Daily (D1) 

Q recognises that price action strikes at the .618 resistance.

The subsequent clear rejection of resistance may be the spark to ignite a relief rally among altcoins, where the ETH/BTC pair serves as a reliable proxy for altcoin sentiment. 

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Ethereum vs. Bitcoin, ETH/BTC - Daily (D1) 

See you again for the next update.

- q

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