BTC/USD, ETH/USD, ETH/BTC, Technical Outlook, Edition #145 (15/11/2021)

Bitcoin protecc... but will Bitcoin attacc? While Bears are down - they certainly aren't out 😬 Q dives into the latest technical assessment to kick off the new weekly trading session 👇

Bitcoin retests major support around USD 64K 

Q remarks that the D1 20 EMA (GREEN) appears to have held thus far - despite multiple wick attempts to drive price action below.

Qluster analysts suggest a reading of the technicals to aid in evaluating the current uptrend, which appears to remain intact.

It is essential to consider the inherent risks of an adverse trend reversal occurring at any time. 

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Bitcoin, BTC/USD - Daily (D1)

Momentum endures on the bullish side of the market structure.

Premature celebrations might embarrass even the foolhardiest bull. Technical principles imply that flattening the D1 20 EMA curve or a daily close below major support is highly likely to void this argument. 

Whether this develops - time will tell.

Given the gravity of such developments, Qluster analysts intend to maintain a close monitor on price action in the coming editions of the Technical Outlook.


Q presents an idealised bearish scenario below…


Bitcoin, BTC/USD - Daily (D1)

Above: Q's depiction of a possible bearish scenario

As pictured above, price action may hint at signs of a reversal or resurgent bearish momentum should the below points eventuate:

  1. A bearish rejection from the .618 Fibonacci retracement zone

  2. The D1 20 EMA curve flattening or (worse) inverting

  3. Failing to maintain support with a bearish retest to confirm resistance flip

An interpretation of the analysis further infers the probability of heading higher currently outweighs the chances of a deeper pullback - or correction.


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Q's Conclusion

Now having detailed Bitcoin's update, Q moves focus to the broader cryptocurrency market. 

It is crucial to recognise that assessing the ETH/BTC cross pair must again consider the state of market structure - which appears messier by comparison. 

Qluster analysts observe price action seems content to hover around the .618 Fibonacci retracement level for the moment. 

In earlier editions, Q explains why technical practitioners expect price action to gravitate around the 'Golden Ratio'. Read the full article 👇

Qluster Research
Golden Ratio, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, Technical Outlook, Edition #79 (14/08/21)
Read more

Thus, charting the ETH/USD pair reveals a rising channel with the price appearing to respect support at the D1 20 EMA. Qluster analysts illustrate this below:

Ether vs. Bitcoin, ETH/BTC - Daily (D1)

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Ether, ETH/USD - Daily (D1)

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Ether, ETH/USD - 4 Hour (H4)

Guided by technical principles, Q determines this structure remains bullish should ETH/USD hold the .382 Fib level - or succeed in closing above the .618 Fib resistance.

Conversely, price action may imply signs of a reversal or bearish momentum increasing if the below transpires…

  1. A bearish rejection from the .618 Fibonacci retracement zone

  2. The D1 20 EMA curve flattening or (worse) inverting

  3. Failing to maintain support with a bearish retest to confirm resistance flip

See you again for the next update.

- q

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