BTC/USD, ETH/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #4 (27/05/21)

Bitcoin had initially rejected from the 200 1D EMA (exponential moving average) at $41K USD and has now retraced back to some local support around $37K USD. 

If the bulls want any chance of BTC/USD not falling further, down to $34K USD or lower, then they need to maintain this higher-low sustained on the 4Hr now, painting a flag-like channel. There is also an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming which could be a good sign if they’re to attack $41K USD again.

It looks quite 50/50 here, literally. The RSI (relative strength index) is hovering around 50 suggesting that trend is currently undecided but wanting to make a move soon. The bulls have a lot of selling pressure around $41K USD. They have dealt with worse before and a break to the upside would see BTC/USD run up to $46K USD. A squeeze like that would be nice from our bulls as shorts build and get liquidated around support if the sellers decide to get too greedy.

Conversely, if bears want to eat beef, then the time to strike is now. They also showed up at the right time around $41k USD which was expected seeing the resistance / 200 1D EMA. A breakdown here would see a sell off down to $34K, possibly lower if they could punch through the order block around $32K USD. 

Whatever happens next if this range breaks down is bound to be volatile, so be ready for anything. 

A few of our lovely subscribers recommended an Ethereum chart tonight, so we’ve mapped out a similar trajectory for ETH/SUD following a similar expectation below. 

Ethereum is admittedly the nicer of the two charts now, however, it might be a better idea to steer clear in case Bitcoin does break down and bring the market down with it. 

Watch BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) as a way to not get too burned if Bitcoin does become volatile. 

Stay tuned for the next update.

- q

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