BTC/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #1 (24/05/21)

Bitcoin 1W:

Seller momentum over the last few weeks has lowered BTC's price down to the macro .618 Fibonacci (fib) retracement zone at approximately 27K USD.

This is a very key level for the bulls to protect and could possibly mark the end of the bull market if lost. That being said, we have the 1W 50 moving average (MA) as support around 28K USD further suggesting that there is indeed significant support and buyer demand for Bitcoin around this zone.

Alternatively, should 27K-28K USD fail to do its job as support and breakdown further, then Bitcoin will likely find more bulls located around the former 2017 high, 20K USD. We can also see major uptrend support here suggesting that 19K - 20K USD may be on the cards, so have some lowball bids set there.

Bitcoin 4Hr:

A closer and more detailed representation of the sell-off clearly depicts price respecting the overhead downward sloping resistance. Meaning, two things could possibly happen.

A bullish scenario would see BTC bump up and above this sloped resistance, retesting the slope as support, before running higher to 46K-47K USD Conversely, the bearish scenario would see BTC reject again from downward sloping resistance, this time, potentially putting in another fresh low around 26K-27K USD major support.

If the bulls fail to stop the bears there, then 19K-20K USD would be the next zone to keep an eye out for.

Overview: Cautiously neutral. Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet, however, the 27K-28K USD major support zone, complemented with our macro .618 fib and 1W 50MA, is not without its charm. I would be buying cautiously here with the expectation that Bitcoin has not finished correcting just yet.

Stay tuned for the next update.

- q

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