BTC/USD, Technical Outlook, Edition #57 (20/07/21)

Bitcoin finally makes its move, as bears take their grip on the market. Will we see a bearish re-test back to USD 31K before bears unleash maximum pain?

Selling pressure from the bears proved all too great for our bulls who, after a two-month-long consolidation, are left exhausted and fatigued.

Consequently, a daily close below USD 31K had resulted from buyer momentum eroding, thereby causing the major support zone to crumble.

The bulls, who had been buying around this USD 30K range, are now looking to exit their longs at break-even to minimise their risk. However, to close out a leveraged buy, a leveraged short of the same size must be executed to balance out the position.

In other words, buyers inadvertently become sellers by further adding to the seller momentum as BTC/USD tries to recapture the USD 31K support zone, which has now flipped into resistance.

Those who manage to do this successfully will now be waiting for a bearish re-test to confirm BTC/USD does not re-capture support.

Using the D1 BTC/USD chart below, we can visualise what a bearish re-test will appear like and flip from buying to selling once the confirmation is made.

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 1 Day (D1)

Until Bitcoin manages to either regain USD 31K as support or, better yet, flip the D1 20 EMA (GREEN) into support, bearish bias will remain.

Q’s Conclusion

Bitcoin has finally broken down as the Qluster team predicted; however, the question now is how low we will go? If bulls can retake key levels, Bitcoin may see a relief rally. However, as it stands, bears are in full control of the market. Remember, what goes up must come down.

See you again for the next update.

- q

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