BTC/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #21 (13/06/21)

BTC/USD on HIGH ALERT - it's now make-or-break for Bitcoin bulls. Prepare for the coming storm and check out today's in-depth analysis on a potential bullish/bearish breakout

This eerie silence in sentiment before the impending storm has never been more discernible

It is make-or-break time for Bitcoin now.

The bulls have done a superb job defending support at USD 35K. There is plenty of bullish confluence above, although bearish awaits if BTC/USD falls below this zone.

Without further ado, let's break down the H4 BTC/USD chart below in an attempt to identify the likelihoods of breaking up or down. 

H4 BTC/USD:

Buyers Prevail (Bullish)

We'll begin first with the bullish:

  • Nice reflexive buying volume coming in around USD 35K

  • Potential bullish, flag-like-structure which may break up to USD 41K 

  • Above the micro and macro 0.5 fib retracement zone around USD 34-35K

  • Above both the W1 50MA & 200MA (Weekly Moving Average) indicators

  • Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic 1 still intact and progressing through Phase C 

Sellers Overwhelm (Bearish)

Now, following with the bearish:

  • No changes to bearish market structure due to consecutive lower highs (LH) 

  • Below both H4 50MA & 200MA 

  • Below both D1 50MA & 200MA 

  • Bullish fundamentals having little impact on price

  • Bearish descending triangle pennant forming on the H4 chart

  • Bearish head and shoulders pattern forming in W1 chart

Q's Conclusion: The bulls desperately need another higher low (HL) as soon as possible. Bearish confluence still outweighs bullish; however, we see some positive signals around USD 34-35K. 

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Without confirmation of changes to market structure, attempting to buy is very risky and an excellent way to burn available capital by trying to catch knives. 

What happens over the coming days is critical in determining the path Bitcoin will follow next.

See you again for the next update.

- q

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