BTC/USD, Technical Outlook, Edition #102 (13/09/2021)

Weekend fakeout baffles Bitcoin Bulls 😵 Bears emerge hungry for fresh beef. Gain a stronger footing and discover the latest technical insights from Q for the new weekly trading session ahead 🚀

Limp weekend price action, Bulls impotent - Bears preparing to strike?

Bitcoin remains in consolidation within a symmetrical pennant following a rather ordinary and tranquil weekend. 

As a result, the inherent lack of supportive volume has led to further price decay as the BTC/USD pair tried to 'fake out' - or false breakout - before collapsing back inside the pennant. 


Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 4 Hour (H4)

Consequently, this rejection led to a further test of uptrend support - the last nail in the coffin. 

As a result, lively sellers succeeded in driving price action to new depths and reaching lows of almost USD 44K. 

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Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 1 Hour (H1)

The H1 BTC/USD chart above attempts to identify three components of bearish behaviour.

Now, exercising each in chronological order:

  1. BTC/USD bounces up from pennant support and then attempts to break out. After two failed candle closes below resistance, the bulls run out of steam which allowed bears to follow through with vindication 

  2. Upper wicks and candles closing below resistance confirm a false breakout and sustain multiple rejections. The concentration of supply allowed sellers to ramp up the momentum, with a bearish engulfing candle driving price action right back down to support. The following 1H candle then closed below support, causing further price decay. 

  3. Desperate to retain the BTC/USD pair above support, Bulls now chase the price back up to retake the pennant. Failure to close back inside uptrend support which is now resistance because the price is now below -will likely cause buyers to take a loss and exit out of their positions, thereby adding more pressure to the sell-side. 

Q's Conclusion

Qluster analysts forecast both bullish and bearish scenarios below. 

A bullish breakout would see price break upside from this descending wedge and then back down inside pennant support. This move is conducive to Bitcoin gearing up and advancing higher to USD 49K. 

Conversely, additional bearish retests may cause bulls to capitulate and close their positions. Sluggish demand is likely to inflame downward price pressure and embolden further selling activity.

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 30 Minute (M30)

See you again for the next update. 

- q

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