BTC/USD, Technical Outlook, Edition #117 (02/10/2021)
Bitcoin appears to teeter on the verge of a break upside - or will the dreaded Monday Reversal disappoint buyers? 🎯 Find out the answers and see if you're a Master Trader or Master Baiter now 😂
Plenty of fish in the sea... but no clear signs of life in Bitcoin demand
Give a man a fish, and he eats for one day. Teach a man how to trade?
Perhaps, he'll eat for one day... or a lifetime.
There is much that aspiring traders can seek to learn from the Master Angler dedicated to his craft which extends beyond the generic metaphors of patience.
Q ponders the speculator executing orders into a market, finding many stark parallels in the fisherman casting off into the ocean or river.
As the fisherman has their tackle and plans the fishing trip around the weather, the trader has their strategy and executes their approach based on perceived market conditions. The inexperienced or spontaneous fisherman readies to cast in a fog of excitement - only to realise they have the wrong tackle or no tackle...
Or perhaps after investing too much commitment into the journey, the day that looked to be without a whisper of a breeze soon devolves into galeforce inland winds - accompanied by frustration, profanity and tangled lines...
Meanwhile, the experienced angler prepares the tackle ahead of time and plans the trip around optimal weather conditions.
Although the fish are plenty, the Master Angler must utilise opportunities wisely to avoid their bait becoming burley - likewise, the trader may wish to prevent their capital from becoming charity.
There is plenty of fish in the sea, as there are opportunities in the market. But having no available bait - a.k.a. capital - is a surefire way to never landing the Big One.
With this perspective in mind, let's now proceed to Q's technical perspective...
Bitcoin surges to USD 48.5K, with the spotlight securely fixed on market structure.
Price action must plant a Higher Low in the present market structure. This current leg is at risk of correcting lower to USD 44K - 45K should bulls fail to close above USD 47.9K - the .618 fib level.
Q reiterates the dangers of trusting weekend price action, where there is a high potential for many seemingly charming setups to degenerate rapidly. Qluster analysts explore the mischievous weekend trading session in last night's edition of Technical Outlook #116.
🙈 Did you miss Q’s breakdown of weekend trading mischief? 🙈
Link to the detailed analysis of recent weekend price action silly-buggers below!
👇 Catch up on the intel 👇
An analysis of historical technical data suggests that many of these setups induce ad hoc a flurry of retail capital inflow over the weekend. Then, after the small fry shoal in the pond, the big fish - institutions - enter to feast on Monday.
Due to insufficient volume, the big players' new week opening generally results in a hurried walk back of most recent gains.
Vis-à-vis the dreaded Monday Reversal...
All eyes at Qluster HQ fixate at the incoming retest, which may offer precious foresight into an imminent reversal - further evidence of a bullish advance is likely to manifest if a Higher Low is achieved.
Q understands the temptation that ensues boredom and often calls upon the words of the wise when resisting urges of impulsivity:
Are you after many small panfish? Or do you pursue just one or two prize gamefish?
Are you going to fillet and clean a dozen or more fish to make a meal for 4?
Or clean and process just one fish to fill up the entire freezer?
Like the Master Angler, the Master Trader prepares and uses their tackle selection wisely.
Compulsive speculators may find that chasing highs on illiquid weekend trading sessions generally results in disappointing or disastrous catches.
Like the Master Angler, the proactive trader benefits in maximising their tackle by preparing for optimal conditions.
Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 4 Hour (H4)
Avoid being a Master Baiter and seek confirmation of a bullish break of USD 48K in a successful retest.
One should never tolerate their bait becoming burley...
See you again for the next update. - q
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