BTC/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #16 (08/06/21)

Charts are producing plenty of noise right now. Let's cut through the noise and break down critical arguments for bullish and bearish confluence. BONUS - See how a Wyckoff Schematic overlay can help

Bitcoin lost some key ground in today's trading session, with the bears managing a sell down past the 0.5 macro-Fibonacci retracement level at USD 34K. 

It is quite an uphill task trying to determine sentiment in the market right now.

On one side, you have bullish developments convoluted with coordinated FUD. On the other, a myriad of technical confluence - making it especially challenging for those who are embarking on their first foray into crypto.

1W: 

1D: 

snapshot

Let's cut through the noise by looking at a balanced assessment of points arguing for bullish and bearish confluence. We'll kick off the discussion with:

Bullish Confluence on BTC/USD

  • Above 1W 50MA at USD 29K 

  • Massive order block around USD 30K 

  • Lines up with macro .618 at USD 27K 

  • The Taproot network upgrades for the Bitcoin network, allowing for the introduction of the new signature scheme known as Schnorr signatures.

  • This paves the way for advanced transaction login, or more simply, smart contracts.

  • El Salvador making plans to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender

Bearish Confluence on BTC/USD

  • Bearish pennant had broken down 

  • Lost 0.5 macro fib retracement zone at USD 34K 

  • Coordinated FUD (Elon tweets, China Fud, FED pipeline) 

  • Below D1 50 MA and D1 200MA  

  • The overall bad outlook after the Bitcoin Miami conference, which many embarrassing moments, like this one

H4: 

By overlaying the Wyckoff Schematics discussed in the Wyckoff Special Edition Technical Outlook, it becomes apparent that Distribution #2 is the best fit. 

The bulls have a lot of support around USD 30K and need to step in aggressively if BTC/USD continues to bleed downwards over the next few weeks towards the macro .618 fib at USD 27K.

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Our conclusion, bearish confluence outweighs bullish confluence, and Bitcoin is still mid correction. However, the bulls have a lot of support around USD 30K and need to step in aggressively if BTC/USD continues to bleed downwards over the next few weeks towards the macro .618 fib at USD 27K.

Feel free to use the Wyckoff Schematic #2 Distribution as an overlay to depict the above scenario.

See you again for the next update.

- q


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