BTC/USD: Technical Outlook, Edition #20 (12/06/21)

Tug-of-war between Bitcoin bulls and bears continues - Q's conclusion underscores the critical technical indicators of a bullish reversal. Learn more in our Saturday trading edition

Bitcoin bulls are running out of time, and the window for a bullish reversal around USD 30K is closing. 

Selling pressure around USD 38K was greater than buyer demand, and price consequently fell below the H4 50MA (Moving Average) around USD 36K, which has now been flipped back into resistance. 

All hope is not lost, and there is still an opportunity for the bulls to turn this around. 

If they manage to successfully defend our macro 0.5 fib retracement level at USD 34K, thereby putting in a higher low (HL). 

Both the bullish and bearish scenarios for BTC/USD have been depicted below on the H4 chart. 

It goes without saying - our bears will strike hard, intending to break below the USD 30K order block should the bulls fail to put in a higher low, between USD 32K to USD 34K. 

The overlay below of the Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 appears to lend support to the HL scenario. 

Buying before is the equivalent of trying to catch knives, which can be an expensive way to trade your capital. 


Q's Conclusion: Due to the lack of change in bearish market structure and inability to defend key moving averages, we are yet to see any indication of a potential bullish reversal up to USD 46K. We must identify a confirmed higher low (HL) before this bearish bias can change.

See you again for the next update.

- q

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