BTC/USD, XAU/USD (Gold): Technical Outlook, Edition #11 (03/06/21)

Waiting for a break on the upside? Let's talk through some scenarios and understand what to look for...

The wait is FINALLY over…

After consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle-like pennant, Bitcoin is on the cusp of breaking upward towards USD 46K.

Unsurprisingly, this breakout occurred while Gold found resistance around USD 1900 per oz. 

Should the XAU/USD (Gold) pair continue correcting, our Bitcoin bulls may have a window of opportunity to push BTC/USD well above its D1 200 MA (Moving Average), located around USD 41K.

A primary concern behind Bitcoin's price action is the lack of a definitive bottom around the USD 30K region. For those buying, it's important not to get caught out with your pants down by only playing one side of the market. 

Learn to hedge your exposure and minimise liquidation prices or have an "ejecto seato" exit plan that protects capital

Trading is a zero-sum game.

Memorise and remember this; you make money from another market participant because your edge is superior or risk losing your capital because theirs is more disciplined. 

After watching paint dry over the last few weeks with Bitcoin, we're glad to see some action... finally.

Moving forward, here's what to expect if the hypothesis is correct –

Look for a confirmed breakdown on Gold and break up on BTC. Retests and rejections are key.

Gold outflows = Bitcoin inflows and vice versa

BTC/USD H4 Bull:

XAU/USD H4 Bear:

See you again for the next update.

- q

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