BTC/USD, XAU/USD (Gold), XAG/USD (Silver): Technical Outlook, Edition #30 (23/06/21)

Potential bullish reversal on BTC/USD as speculators appear to shift towards risk-on sentiment. Let's discuss the implications for precious metals & the lingering effects of last week's taper tantrum

Risk sentiment improved considerably across the markets today

Speculators have driven this change in appetite by rationalising their forecasts. 

Check out Technical Outlook Edition #29 to catch up on our recent post-FOMC analysis

The Fed may have only just taken its first step through the tapering talk window. However, interest rate changes are still 12 – 18 months away, a lifetime in financial markets.

Keeping this in mind, let's break down charts on the following assets:

Bitcoin, BTC/USD - 4 Hour (H4)

BTC/USD Bullish Confluence 

  • Flipped GREEN 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) 

  • Bullish pin-bar candle close on USD 31K support after a fake-out drop to USD 29K

  • Bitcoin needs to turn USD 34K into support as valid confirmation of a breakout

BTC/USD Bearish Confluence 

  • Under macro 0.5 fib retracement zone resistance at USD 34.5K 

  • H4 50MA and 200MA (Moving Averages) at USD 36K 

Q's Technical Assessment

BTC/USD correction appears over for now, but it still needs a bullish re-test to confirm the reversal. 

Gold, XAU/USD - 4 Hour (H4)

Q's Technical Assessment

Gold is also looking bullish and is currently trying to flip the H4 20 EMA (this bodes well for Silver bulls as well) before we head into the European trading session tonight. 

Check out the Silver chart below...

Silver, XAG/USD - 4 Hour (H4)

Q's Conclusion

Risk-on sentiment creeping back in a cautiously optimistic manner following on from last week's hawkish backflip in Fed expectations.

See you again for the next update.

- q

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