BTC/USD, XAU/USD (Silver): Technical Outlook, Edition #23 (15/06/21)

BREAKING NEWS: The Bitcoin downtrend has broken. In this edition, let's assess price-action and evaluate the apparent inverse relationship between the traditional and modern inflation hedges XAU, BTC

Bitcoin has broken the downtrend and embarked on the early stages of a bullish reversal

Do you want to know what's more impressive? 

Our bulls are consolidating well above USD 38K.

Gold (XAU/USD) is now cooling off, which may be a critical source of extra fuel for Bitcoin buyers.

The two charts below attempt to highlight the apparent inverse relationship between XAU/USD and BTC/USD. Check out Q's technical forecast on the charts for both instrument pairs moving forward, included for your viewing pleasure. 

Leave a comment at the bottom of this article to let us know what you think about the forecasts!

H4 BTC/USD: 

Q's Technical Analysis:

  • Attempting to flip the H4 200 moving average (MA) is bullish

  • While XAU/USD dips, BTC/USD chips away at macro .382 fib retracement resistance (USD 41.5K) 

  • Look for further confirmation of a reversal in the shape of a second higher low (HL), ideally around USD 37-38K

H4: XAU/USD: 

Q's Technical Analysis:

  • Bitcoin attempts to flip its H4 200 MA, while Gold tries to maintain it

  • Bitcoin has flipped its H4 50 MA into support while Gold's MA is now resistance

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Now, let's zoom out to give you the helicopter view

Here are some further illustrations of the bullish and bearish expectations for the touted inverse relationship between BTC and XAU using the D1 (daily) timeframe.

D1 BTC/USD:

D1 XAU/USD: 

Q's Conclusion

If Bitcoin flips the 1D 200 MA and the .382 macro fib retracement zone around USD 42K - its correction is over.  

Due to Bitcoin's superior supply mechanisms, a potential BTC reversal may spell enormous suffering for XAU (Gold) bulls - failing the common traditional consensus as a hedge against inflation.

See you again for the next update.

- q

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