We were there when PoS slew the Emperor
A historical day for the cryptocurrency industry - Over 8 years of hard work and innovation, a new king is born today.
Reflections of a Crypto Maximalist
What pushes man forward is curiosity, the will to build, innovate and grow. These fundamental tenants are what makes us strong, and what makes us great. Our infinite ability to grow, and achieve. Turning our imagination into reality.
What makes us human is our ability to think beyond our limitations, and to dare to go further than those that came before us. What makes us great is our ability to keep pushing forward, even if we fail over and over again. The relentless will to struggle and fight. That’s what separates a man from men!
The Ethereum communities commitment to keep growing and perfecting the network is the greatest strength. Those who think ossification is the answer to the problem of making truly perfect currencies are fools who do not understand that perfection itself is impossible. It’s the endless struggle to improve which is what brings us close to perfection, but it’s always just out of reach. We believe this was a part of god’s design, to give humans the motivation to keep pushing forward, no matter how easy or hard it gets.
Use this historical event as motivation to move forward in your own life! Never give up! As long as you are awake fight to be better! Failure is just another step on the long path that is glory.
“If we fail to adapt, we fail to move forward.”
See you all on the other side…
Indeed, this September appears to be an ‘unfriendly’ month to the markets. Here’s a snapshot of the latest headlines to note:
Wait no more! ETH Merge in less than an hour…
US stocks are plunging after the release of the inflation report.
The US CPI has risen faster than expected; shattering the hopes of many that the Federal Reserve would soon ease its tightening monetary policy.
From the on-chain perspective, several notable short-term developments of supply on exchange (SoE) for both Bitcoin and Ethereum seem to support arguments for the continuation of this bearish outlook.
Now, let’s run through the latest updates for BTC and ETH in the short and long term.
Bitcoin’s SoE displays a significant increase [BTC: SoE p9.121].
The supply of Bitcoins on exchanges has approached resistance levels marked by its short-term exponential moving average (EMA 30,50), between the range of 9.23 and 9.11.
In terms of price, Bitcoin appears to break down from its local support at the US$20,700, which pares back most of the gains market bulls have made in the past week.
At this stage, a sudden shift in fundamentals could be the trigger for a corresponding flip in the markets.
Ethereum SoE succeeded in taking another bullish bounce after touching the EMA(30,50) support. Price action also seems to have lost its short-term support range at between US$1,700 and US$1,632
Supply on Exchange looks to be presenting a robust push upside, surpassing its 17th August pivot level.
SoE now sits around the 15% mark [ETH: SoE p15.01].
Qluster HQ notices the movement of Bitcoin SoE, which moves closer to its long-term resistance. Note the delta symbol ∆ (referred to in previous reports) now sits at 1.175 points.
An increase in delta can be interpreted as the on-chain metric inching towards resistance, implying that the Supply on Exchanges in the long-term view is actually kicking higher.
Our view will remain constant unless BTC SoE crosses above the EMA(50), which is now at 10.73%. Interestingly, this figure is also less than the previous week.
Since the previous report, Ethereum SoE seems to sustain bullish momentum from a long-term viewpoint. Our regular readers should have expected this outcome for ETH supply.
The supply of Ethereum on exchanges has made another push, departing further from the EMA(50) at 13.80%.
Considering this analysis, we consider Ethereum to remain in the bearish area until the evidence indicates otherwise. The current situation would be invalidated by Ethereum’s SoE falling to marked levels below the EMA(30), which now stands at 13.53%.
ALTPERP grabbed liquidity, the bears continue to move
Following up on the update covered in last week’s On-Chain Report…
Cryptocurrency exchange FTX’s Altcoin Index basket (FTX: ALTPERP) has broken through its US$2,012 resistance level before capitulating downside again after last night’s CPI release.
CPI refers to the Consumer Price Index, which is the official measure of consumer price inflation utilised by most central banks. The index is typically based on a select basket of consumer goods and services.
The current situation seems to point to a particularly weak local market structure for cryptocurrencies. This assessment is supported by the market-wide index breaking both bullish and bearish sides within a relatively short period of time [FTX: ALTPERP q1920].
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From here, practitioners need to be mindful of the heightened risk that markets may produce an adverse trend reversal. These sharp reactions could occur very suddenly and at a whim.
When the market presents a weak directional movement, there are two critical factors to consider:
It is necessary to review the bigger structure of the market, i.e., market structure in the higher timeframe.
ALTPERP presents an active resistance level on the weekly view around the levels marked by US$2,900 – US$2,600.
A ranging market will present multiple false signals until it follows one side.
Naturally, proactivity is a key requisite for navigating the ‘choppy seas’ that lie ahead for price action. Hence, participants might be encouraged to understand the best practices of capital management and develop an appropriate risk mitigation strategy accordingly.
A saying goes “Markets reward the patient and resilient. Swift and painful retribution await the fearful and greedy.”
Mission Log | On-Chain Summary 15/9
Both short-term and long-term SoE of Bitcoin presents an increase, with Delta ∆ between the long-term SoE and its EMA(30,50) at 1.175 points (SoE below EMAs, lower than last week).
The latest Price and SoE metrics each present arguments for a bearish outlook.
The consensus at Qluster HQ is tilted towards regarding this view as the current market situation.
Ethereum’s supply on exchange data looks to be pushing higher away from the EMA(30,50) area.
This is the case for both the long-term and short-term perspectives.
Thus, we can keep the view from last week that holding/longing for Ethereum continues to be inferior given the latest developments for ETH.
Despite presenting a bullish short-term movement last week, the cryptocurrency market only took a single evening session to crash back down to its bearish zone again. From here, the markets also need to consider the bearish market structure developing on the weekly timeframe. Weekly resistance of FTX: ALTPERP currently sits around the US$2,900 – US$$2,600 range.
While markets await the ALTPERP to once again establish another short-term bullish signal, this week’s updated analysis points to holding onto a pessimistic view of the crypto market. This bias will remain until the evidence indicates a return in bullish activity and normalising of fundamentals that should see some degree of price stability return to the broader crypto assets.
See you again, in a post-PoW world.
- q + Team (KK, GT, AN, ZA, CG, MG, AC, VN, RD, HE, JL, JDB +WS + SersDAO) and all our friends along the way ;)
This post was published 30 blocks before the second greatest innovation in crypto history, after the creation of Bitcoin. 06:43:01 UTC 15/09/2022
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