WTI/USD, US10Y, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, Technical Outlook, Edition #153 (29/11/2021)
New COVID strain, Markets in turmoil - the World seems Fine 😂 Ready up for the week ahead with the latest market research and technical analysis from Q 👇
Black Friday to Cyber Monday Sale - Save 10% on Premium when you upgrade to 12-months of access to daily research.
Don’t miss out - this offer ends at Midnight! 🚀
Omicron, Oil Volatility - Certainty amidst the next Two Weeks of Uncertainty
As the festive season fast approaches, Q heads into the new week of trading with a significantly heightened sense of caution.
Without venturing into a deeper discussion of the new COVID-19 'Omicron' variant's effect on financial markets in tonight's Technical Outlook, Qluster analysts identify oil volatility as a notable contributor to the current levels of uncertainty - festering across global markets at present.
Read Q's coverage of the Omicron variant and priority economic data published today.
Recall that the markets experienced a highly turbulent conclusion in the prior week.
In particular, participants witnessed widespread selling action across the board from commodities to crypto - and even the stock indices weren't spared from a decent bashing!
Qluster Research is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber 🤗
Turning to the present and Q observes a hodge-podge in sentiment…
Specifically, confusion and ambiguity appear rampant in today's Asian session marked. The elevated risk is sure to persist as the markets try to understand how severe the COVID Omicron variant is - and, more specifically, its likely financial consequences.
Although, it is crucial to recognise that risk appetite looks to be returning. This apparent propensity for risk is likely fuelled by a bounce in crude oil futures, with the most remarkable recoveries found in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As reported by Reuters:
OPEC and its allies have postponed technical meetings to later this week, giving themselves more time to assess the impact of the new Omicron coronavirus variant on oil demand and prices, according to OPEC+ sources and documents.
Thus, expect uncertainty to endure as the markets await the meeting of officials from OPEC and its partners to consider whether to enact a planned 400,000 barrel per day increase in production.
OPEC is also known as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The intergovernmental organisation consists of 13 countries and oversees the global supply of oil. OPEC+ is a larger group formed in 2016 to maintain greater control over the global crude oil market.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil, WTI/USD - Daily (D1)
Qluster analysts note that the WHO (World Health Organisation) will require at least two weeks of vaccine trialling before determining its efficacy - and further, the contagiousness of this new COVID variant.
On this fine Monday - or Funday, if you swing that way - Q ponders a nagging but warranted question...
As the markets await a further update from the WHO, will this translate into wishy-washy and choppy conditions for the following weeks?
While no one can predict the next passage in this unfolding story with absolute assurance, there is but one certainty - which is uncertainty in the markets.
Ergo, the 'elephant in the room'.
Whether this is the catalyst for another negative crude oil futures black-swan event - like in April 2020.
Furthermore, any potential impact on the US Federal Reserve's tapering timeline remains unseen. While improbable, it is essential to consider that US bond yields appear mixed and may apply increased pressure on interest rate hikes.
US Government Bonds 10Y Yield, US10Y - Daily (D1)
Bitcoin, BTC/USD - Daily (D1)
Qluster analysts perceive Bitcoin in a corrective move, despite the bounce that occurred this morning. The 20-day exponential moving average (D1 20 EMA) continues to function as resistance.
According to technical principles, price action remains corrective until flipping the D1 20 EMA into support.
Should oil break from uptrend and lose the D1 200 MA – daresay, Bitcoin and risk-on assets will follow.
On the fence about becoming a Premium Reader? Here's a 7-day free trial so you can do your own due diligence on Qluster Research 🚀
Cancel at any time. No hard feelings 🤗
Ether, ETH/USD - Daily (D1)
Qluster analysts notice many parallels in the narrative and technical structure of Ether and Bitcoin. While holding in correction, the successful flip of the key moving averages bodes well for the bullish argument.
Likewise, a breakdown and loss of major support levels are likely detrimental to all risk-on assets - including Ether.
In any case, Ether awaits the next move from Bitcoin before deciding on its own.
See you again for the next update.
Do you like reading Q’s research coverage of other financial assets? Leave a comment to let us know your favourite asset classes 👇
Follow us for more detailed analysis on all markets, including Decentralised technology. Check out the links below
Join our Facebook group and connect with likeminded traders:
Like our Facebook page for future updates:
Follow us on LinkedIn for future updates:
Keep up with us on Twitter:
The information on this website is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as legal, financial and/or investment advice and should not be construed and/or relied on as such. Before making any commitment of a legal and/or financial nature you should seek advice from a qualified and registered legal practitioner and/or financial and/or investment adviser. No material contained within this website should be construed or relied upon as providing recommendations in relation to any legal and/or financial product. Qluster does not recommend and/or endorse products and does not receive remuneration based upon investment and/or other decisions